January 10, 2018
- After a heavy correction from last month’s all-time high, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating in a wide range. At the time of writing, bitcoin price is trading near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $14,200 on Bitfinex.
- BTC dominance has settled near 33%, down from 65% on December 7. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached US$835 billion on January 8 before a short correction.
- BTC price remains in a long-term uptrend, yet continues to suffer from negative news events and has underperformed compared to numerous alt coins since late December.
- Current market structure suggests a retest of $12,800 levels, with next major support at $11,400. On the upside, a break about the 50% retracement level at $15,295 puts resistances around $16,300 and $17,900.
The BTC/USD pair reached an all-time high of $19,891 on Bitfinex on December 17, 2017, after a two week long bull run fueled by mainstream media coverage and hype surrounding BTC futures listings on CME and CBOE exchanges. After correcting, bitcoin is now trading around $14,200, with US$242 billion market capitalization and US$17 billion in 24-hour trading volume.
There are 334,000 confirmed transactions per day, with 84,000 unconfirmed transactions in the mempool. Average confirmation time is 11 minutes. The network appears to have stabilized since last month, when the run-up in price was accompanied by a huge backlog, complicated by ongoing “spam” transactions.
Hashrate and difficulty are increasing steadily, suggesting that miners continue to find BTC the most profitable chain to mine, despite a number of recent or upcoming hard forks including Bitcoin God, Super Bitcoin, Bitcoin Diamond, Bitcoin Platinum, and Bitcoin Cash Plus. Among BTC competitors, Bitcoin Cash (BCC/BCH) remains the runner-up in terms of adoption and network metrics.
Last week, BTC price dropped sharply on news that South Korea plans to ban anonymous accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges. Days later, it regained traction following reports that tech entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel’s venture capital firm has amassed “hundreds of millions” of dollars worth of bitcoin. Recently, price dropped again on reports that China’s government seeks to clamp down on bitcoin mining by ending preferential treatment by local governments.
The market will continue to be affected by news events, especially regarding regulations, as governments and financial institutions increasingly scrutinize bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, it appears that mainstream adoption will continue to be a long-term trend for Bitcoin in 2018.
On the daily chart, BTC remains in a long-term upwards trend. Several major corrections over the past year have seen price touch the 150-day exponential moving average. In the near future, a major correction would likely retest long-term trend support between $8,000 and $10,000.
Shorter time frames show a consolidation pattern with key support levels near $13,400 and $12,700. Should this pattern continue to hold, we expect it to resolve within the month, either with resumption of the uptrend or a reversal.
Key Support & Resistance:
This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. It reflects the opinions of its authors and should not be considered an endorsement by Viewfin or Metaverse to buy, sell, or hold any digital assets.